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Lung cancer

How much each habit raises, or lowers, the odds of dying of lung cancer. Tap a pill, answer yours. Green pills lower the risk, red raise it; a star marks an estimate, not a published number. All causes ›

Smoking and the rest: lung cancer death risk

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Smoking and the rest: lung cancer death risk

50%25%0%25%50%75%100%← more risk · % change in risk · less risk →Factors, ranked by biggest effect≈25×#1169%#219%≈8%#326%#4≈25%#523%#620%#7≈18%#8≈15%#914%#1011%#11Everythingelseno single number

Scroll sideways to see every factor →

Tap a pill to answer yours.

Where you sit

0 of 11 answered

Answer the 11 factors above to see which ones raise your own risk, which sit at the reference, and which the studies have no number for.

Relative risk versus each factor’s reference group; above the line is lower risk, below it higher.

Sources (15)Thun et al., N Engl J Med 2013 · Inoue-Choi M, Liao LM, Reyes-Guzman C, et al., JAMA Intern Med 2017 · Peto et al., BMJ 2000 and 12 moreShow all
  1. [1]R. Peto et al. Smoking, smoking cessation, and lung cancer in the UK since 1950: combination of national statistics with two case-control studies. BMJ, 321(7257):323-9, 2000. doi:10.1136/bmj.321.7257.323 Evidence: Low
  2. [2]M. J. Thun et al. 50-year trends in smoking-related mortality in the United States. N Engl J Med, 368(4):351-64, 2013. doi:10.1056/NEJMsa1211127 Evidence: High
  3. [3]M. Inoue-Choi et al. Association of Long-term, Low-Intensity Smoking With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study. JAMA Intern Med, 177(1):87-95, 2017. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2016.7511 Evidence: Low
  4. [4]M. L. Coté et al. Increased risk of lung cancer in individuals with a family history of the disease: a pooled analysis from the International Lung Cancer Consortium. Eur J Cancer, 48(13):1957-68, 2012. doi:10.1016/j.ejca.2012.01.038 Evidence: High
  5. [5]Y. T. Jin et al. Familial aggregation of lung cancer in a high incidence area in China. Br J Cancer, 92(7):1321-5, 2005. doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6602465 Evidence: Low
  6. [6]P. Duan et al. Body mass index and risk of lung cancer: Systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis. Sci Rep, 5:16938, 2015. doi:10.1038/srep16938 Evidence: Moderate
  7. [7]S. C. Moore et al. Association of Leisure-Time Physical Activity With Risk of 26 Types of Cancer in 1.44 Million Adults. JAMA Intern Med, 176(6):816-25, 2016. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2016.1548 Evidence: High
  8. [8]US Surgeon General. The health consequences of involuntary exposure to tobacco smoke. US Surgeon General, 2006. Evidence: Not graded (guideline)
  9. [9]X. J. Xue et al. Red and processed meat consumption and the risk of lung cancer: a dose-response meta-analysis of 33 published studies. Int J Clin Exp Med, 7(6):1542-53, 2014. Evidence: Moderate
  10. [10]National Lung Screening Trial Research Team et al. Reduced lung-cancer mortality with low-dose computed tomographic screening. N Engl J Med, 365(5):395-409, 2011. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1102873 Evidence: Moderate
  11. [11]C. A. Pope 3rd et al. Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. JAMA, 287(9):1132-41, 2002. doi:10.1001/jama.287.9.1132 Evidence: Low
  12. [12]K. Fathzadeh et al. The association between dietary fiber intake and risk of lung cancer: a GRADE-assessed systematic review and dose response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Nutr J, 25(1), 2026. doi:10.1186/s12937-026-01337-3 Evidence: Moderate
  13. [13]A. R. Vieira et al. Fruits, vegetables and lung cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Ann Oncol, 27(1):81-96, 2016. doi:10.1093/annonc/mdv381 Evidence: Moderate
  14. [14]J. Y. Lee et al. Diabetes mellitus as an independent risk factor for lung cancer: a meta-analysis of observational studies. Eur J Cancer, 49(10):2411-23, 2013. doi:10.1016/j.ejca.2013.02.025 Evidence: Moderate
  15. [15]S. Darby et al. Radon in homes and risk of lung cancer: collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 European case-control studies. BMJ, 330(7485):223, 2005. doi:10.1136/bmj.38308.477650.63 Evidence: High

Every factor, one by one

One quick question each. The charts above follow your answers, and so does every other What Matters page that asks the same question.

  1. #1Smoking[1, 2, 3]≈25×

    Nothing else on any chart on this site comes close.

    Do you smoke?

    reference
    ≈7×
    ≈12×
    ≈25×

    Not answered yet. Tap an option to save your answer. Saved to your quiz answers, so the quiz shows it too.

  2. #2Family history of lung cancer[4, 5]+169%

    A pooled analysis of 24 case-control studies and nearly 50,000 people found a first-degree relative (parent, sibling or child) with lung cancer raised the odds by 51%, after adjusting for smoking, and the excess held up in never smokers too.

    Any strong family history of cancer?

    reference
    +51%
    +169%

    Not answered yet. Tap an option to save your answer. Saved to your quiz answers, so the quiz shows it too.

  3. #3Body weight[6]≈+8%

    A dose-response meta-analysis found lung cancer risk fell as BMI rose: 0.98 at a BMI of 25, 0.91 at 30 and 0.81 at 35, versus normal weight.

    How would you describe your weight?

    ≈−28%
    −19%
    ≈−6%
    reference
    ≈+8%

    Not answered yet. Tap an option to save your answer. Saved to your quiz answers, so the quiz shows it too.

  4. #4Physical inactivity[7]−26%

    In 1.44 million adults across 12 cohorts, the most active tenth developed 26% less lung cancer than the least active tenth, after adjusting for smoking.

    How many days a week do you get 30+ minutes of exercise?

    reference
    ≈−9%
    ≈−17%
    −26%

    Not answered yet. Tap an option to save your answer. Saved to your quiz answers, so the quiz shows it too.

  5. #5Secondhand smoke[8]≈+25%

    The Surgeon General’s review of never smokers found living with a smoker raises lung cancer risk by 20 to 30 percent, and regular workplace exposure by 22 percent.

    How often are you around other people’s smoke?

    reference
    ≈+10%
    ≈+25%

    Not answered yet. Tap an option to save your answer. Saved to your quiz answers, so the quiz shows it too.

  6. #6Processed meat[9]+23%

    Across 33 published studies, people eating the most processed meat (bacon, deli meat, sausage) had 23% more lung cancer than people eating the least.

    How often do you eat processed meat (bacon, deli, sausage)?

    +23%
    ≈+9%
    reference

    Not answered yet. Tap an option to save your answer. Saved to your quiz answers, so the quiz shows it too.

  7. #7Skipping CT screening[10]Heavy smokers, now or recently; protective−20%

    The one lever on this chart shown in a randomised trial to cut lung cancer deaths.

    Have you had a yearly low-dose CT scan of your lungs?

    reference
    −20%
    no number

    Not answered yet. Tap an option to save your answer. This answer does not change your life estimate.

  8. #8Outdoor air pollution[11]≈+18%

    In the American Cancer Society’s 1.2-million-adult cohort, each 10 µg/m³ of long-term fine particulate exposure (PM2.5) went with 8% more lung cancer deaths.

    What’s the air like where you live?

    reference
    ≈+6%
    ≈+18%

    Not answered yet. Tap an option to save your answer. Saved to your quiz answers, so the quiz shows it too.

  9. #9Little fibre[12]≈−15%

    Across prospective cohorts totalling almost 3 million people and 26,000 lung cancer cases, each extra 5 g of fibre a day went with 8% less lung cancer, a linear dose-response the review rated moderate-certainty evidence.

    How much fiber do you eat (whole grains, beans, fruit, vegetables)?

    reference
    ≈−8%
    ≈−15%

    Not answered yet. Tap an option to save your answer. Saved to your quiz answers, so the quiz shows it too.

  10. #10Few fruit and vegetables[13]−14%

    Across 18 studies pooled for the World Cancer Research Fund’s Continuous Update Project, the highest fruit-and-vegetable eaters had 14% less lung cancer than the lowest, with a dose-response of about 4% less per 100 g (roughly a serving) a day up to about 400 g, where the gain flattens.

    How many servings of vegetables and fruit do you eat a day?

    reference
    ≈−6%
    −14%

    Not answered yet. Tap an option to save your answer. Saved to your quiz answers, so the quiz shows it too.

  11. #11Diabetes[14]+11%

    A meta-analysis of 34 studies found diabetes went with 11% more lung cancer once studies adjusted for smoking status; without that adjustment the association vanished, and the excess showed up clearly in women (14% more) but not in men.

    What’s your blood sugar like?

    reference
    ≈+3%
    +11%
    +11%
    no number

    Same number, 2 answers: The meta-analysis compared diabetes with no diabetes and did not split by how well it was controlled.

    Not answered yet. Tap an option to save your answer. Saved to your quiz answers, so the quiz shows it too.

Cancer, site by site

Share of cancer deaths by site, SEER/NCHS (National Cancer Institute SEER Program, National Cancer Institute Evidence: Not graded (statistics)). Most sites have their own pills chart now — tap one — the smallest are still listed with their share alone.

Read more

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